Central New York is Changing. Change is Good

We are witnessing what some are calling “generational change” in our region. Like most leaders, I view change as both inevitable and largely positive. But while change brings new opportunities, we also understand that it brings new challenges and risks. As leaders, we are compelled to consider how change will impact our communities and our companies. One way to manage through change is by playing out scenarios. Scenario planning enables you to prepare for multiple plausible futures by identifying key uncertainties, mapping out strategic responses, and monitoring leading indicators. Bringing together teams to play out scenarios allows for more creative thinking and development of solutions that anticipate challenges and smooth out volatility and risk.

Consider the impact of Micron Technology on Central and Upstate New York. The project will create 50,000 jobs, add 76,000 new residents to the region, and create a strain on our construction and infrastructure resources. According to Empire State Development (ESD), Micron will add over $16 billion in economic output in our region and more than $9 billion in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the next 30 years. This is, by any standards, a massive impact on any region, particularly one the size and scope of Central New York.

Now imagine you are a manufacturer looking to grow your operations during this period.  Let’s consider some key uncertainties to monitor

Uncertainty	Possible Range
Labor Availability	Highly constrained → Moderately available
Material Pricing & Availability	Volatile and delayed → Predictable
Micron Project Timeline	Accelerated → Delayed
Infrastructure Readiness	Ready and expanding → Overburdened
Government Incentives	High support → Limited funding

To plan effectively, we can define three possible futures:

Scenario 1: “Surge Economy”

• Micron progresses on schedule or faster.
• Labor and materials become scarce.
• Construction prices surge.
• Local infrastructure struggles to scale.

Scenario 2: “Managed Growth”

• Micron’s growth is steady and well-supported.
• Labor and contractors are stretched but not overwhelmed.
• Incentives and regional collaboration ease growing pains.

Scenario 3: “Delayed Uptick”

• Regulatory or macroeconomic delays slow Micron.
• Labor supply is temporarily looser.
• Construction contractors become more available.

As we work through each scenario, we build strategic options for each of them.  Examples:

Strategy	Surge Economy	Managed Growth	Delayed Uptick
Lock in Contractors Early	Critical	Recommended	Optional
Pre-order Long-Lead Materials	Yes	Yes	Partial
Phase Expansion Projects	Start small, defer	Stagger phases	Accelerate
Build In-House Trades Team	High value	Medium value	Not required
Use Modular Construction	Maximize prefab	Selectively apply	Not a priority
Engage in Workforce Development	Urgent	Important	Opportunistic
Secure Government Incentives	Must-do	Strategic move	May be unavailable

We would identify early warning indicators to monitor such as:

Indicator	Signal
Union training center waitlists	Tightening labor
Non-responsiveness to RFPs	Contractor saturation
Micron’s quarterly construction updates	Timeline confidence
Material delivery lead times	Supply chain pressure
Local infrastructure project status	Readiness or delay

Considering all three scenarios we may identify immediate actions to take to prepare for the future such as:

• Lock in key general contractors and specialty subs
• Establish pre-negotiated supply agreements
• Phase large projects into modular or manageable timelines
• Partner with unions, trade schools, and apprenticeships
• Apply for ESD, CHIPS Act, and workforce funding now
• Monitor Micron’s pace and market saturation indicators

Scenario planning is highly effective because, according to scientific research, the brain struggles to distinguish between imagination and reality. Importantly, when dealing with reality we may be constrained by reality itself while the imagination is unbound and free to consider a fantastic range of scenarios.

From a risk management standpoint, working through these scenarios helps us to mitigate personal and business risk and associated costs. For example, we anticipate a considerable increase in the overall cost of living as higher-paying jobs arrive and wages increase along with the cost of goods, housing, property values, taxes and construction. Ultimately, to fully protect one’s assets, insurance costs will rise in step with the cost of repairing or replacing homes, autos and possessions, and for businesses, the cost of business continuation protection, insurance for facilities, inventory, transporting of goods, auto, liability, cyber, workers’ compensation and healthcare.

The bottom line is change is good. Change is necessary for healthy growth, but it is not without changes in risk. The next decade in Central New York will be transformational—but chaotic. Businesses who proactively use scenario planning can transform uncertainty into competitive advantage. By anticipating multiple paths forward and acting decisively when the time is right, they will position themselves as resilient, nimble players in the region’s industrial renaissance. We are wise to pre-plan and run through many scenarios to be prepared.